Wales vs Italy Prediction: Six Nations 2022 Week Five

Banner with the Welsh and Italian flags, for the Six Nations.
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 19th of March at 14:15 GMT
PredictionWales to Win
OddsWales to Win by 21 @ 1.36
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Odds : 1.36
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Odds : 1.01
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Everything comes down to Super Saturday again, but will Wales vs Italy be a super match? I think it unlikely, unless Italy manage to find a super team before the 19th of March, at the Principality Stadium. Wales may not have had a big year in the Six Nations 2022, but I believe they will end their campaign with a big win to end things. Let's take a look why.

wales-versus-italy

Background on Wales vs Italy

Wales fans love a trip to Rome. Normally, they are treated to a romantic weekend on the continent, and they get to see their team crush the Italians like lambs to the slaughter. Below, we can see the results of the past Wales vs Italy games.

Wales WinsItaly WinsDraws
2721

Italy, historically, are nowhere near the same standard as their Home Nations rival, so you would be forgiven for seeing this match as assured for the Welsh. Is there anything that can offer hope to their continental counterparts? Let's look at a few of the statistics, going into this game.

Factors on Paper

There are a lot of factors on paper to consider, going into this game, and I have highlighted a few below.

The Advantage of Playing at Home

The Welsh have a big home advantage, inviting the Italians to the mighty fortress of the Principality. Although one could argue that the stadium is not impregnable, given Wales' defeat to France in week four, I believe the crowd played a crucial part in the match, keeping the French to a four points difference. You can bet that the Welsh crowd will have their turn again, keeping Wales in an up-tempo position throughout what many expect to be an 80-minutes thrashing of Italy. I can see Wales rugby fans doing their bit to push the home side to what could be a cricket score of a match.

Recent Six Nations Results

Recent form is everything in rugby betting. Anybody looking to bet on rugby is likely to look at how both teams have played before a game, and, likewise, this is something I place with great importance when I consider my predictions. As such, let's look at how recent games have panned out below.

Six Nations 2022 Standings from Week Four

PointsNationWinsDrawsLossesPoints DifferenceBonus Try Points
18France400562
16Ireland301844
10England202172
10Scotland202-82
6Wales103-272
0Italy004-1220

Wales

MatchScoreWinner
France vs Italy37-10France
Italy vs England0-33England
Ireland vs Italy57-6Ireland
Italy vs Scotland22-33Scotland

Italy

MatchScoreWinner
France vs Italy37-10France
Italy vs England0-33England
Ireland vs Italy57-6Ireland
Italy vs Scotland22-33Scotland

Analysis

One win in four weeks of the competition may seem pitiful, but it's the outstanding achievement between these two sides so far. It's the major factor which makes me think Wales are in the driving seat, going into this game, so may one win is not something that any sports fans should turn up their nose to, at this point.

Six Nations 2022 Points Scorers

One of the formulae I like to use in making my rugby predictions is to look at how both teams are managing to score in the competition. Below, I have updated the statistics to reflect how both teams have performed before the last week.

Wales

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Dan Biggar280271
Josh Adams51000
Taine Basham51000
Tomas Francis51000
Kieran Hardy51000
Nick Tompkins51000
Callum Sheedy20100
Total555371

Italy

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Paolo Garbisi150330
Ange Capuozzo102000
Callum Braley51000
Tommaso Menoncello51000
Edoardo Padovani30010
Total384340

Analysis of Players and Points

Wales are the more likely winner, based on these points-scoring statistics, with the Italians coming up 17 points short. That may not seem like a huge score difference to some, but it would explain why the Continentals have lost all four of their games so far - they just don't have the firepower to convert their potential into points on the board. I think Italy are sorely underpowered, and I believe they are very unlikely to prove otherwise in this match.

Wales vs Italy Winner: One Last Win for the Home Side

I have been wondering why Italy have been allowed to carry on staggering around in the dark in the Six Nations championship for so long, and this is going to he another confusing affair for European rugby fans, wondering why the Continentals have not been relegated for consistent poor performances. I think Wales have a decent enough side at the moment, but I do not think it is going to be anything spectacular that the Welsh do that will leave this match in another long score difference. I am predicting Italy to lose by some way, and it is very much going to be their inability to bridge the gap in quality which leaves them with more gripping woe.

Wales to Win