Wales vs France Prediction: Six Nations 2022 Week Four

Banner with the Welsh and French flags, for the Six Nations.
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableFriday 11th of March at 20:00 GMT
PredictionFrance to Win
OddsFrance to Win @ 1.18
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France to Win
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Odds : 1.24
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Wales may not be having the best of runs in the Six Nations 2022 thus far, but being back home at the Principality this Friday, 11th March, could be the opportunity they are desperately searching for, to take something positive out of their less-than-desirable follow-up to last year's title win. How will that notion stand with formidable France and their so-far successful pursuit of Grand Slam glory? This is going to be a hell of a match to watch!

wales-versus-france

Background on Wales vs France

It has been over 100 years since the first encounter between these two rugby giants, with the original test dating back to 1908. Let's take a look at the results between the two teams, to see if either side can claim any historical dominance.

Wales WinsFrance WinsDraws
47513

Four wins difference is not enough, in my opinion, to declare one side the dictator of play, but I am sure that the results will come as a surprise to some Welsh rugby fans - those that are all too aware of Wales' rugby heritage - to see that France are the team with the prettier results. As I said though, this is too close for me to call a be all and end all factor, so I think we may have to move on to other elements.

Factors on Paper

I like to call this section Factors on Paper because rugby is a sport without any certainties, and it would be foolish to think that these were the only elements that mattered. Nevertheless, I believe I know the bigger notions that will affect the final score, so let's take a look at my break-down of these key factors.

The Advantage of Playing at Home

Time and time again, I come back to the home advantage. Matches between two close teams are often decided on things like whose fans will have the ultimate say in the stadium, and I believe Wales vs France will be no different. Rugby runs through Welsh blood, and the heritage of the game can be heard in eardrum-shattering decibels every time the men in red play at their home ground, the Principality. I expect no difference on Friday, and I believe strong support from the home fans will make this a close game.

New World Rankings

The world rankings were recently updated, so it may be worth taking a look at swings in standings, to see how both sides are seen as performing, from a World Rugby perspective.

New World RankingOld World RankingCountryShift
11South AfricaNo change
22New ZealandNo change
34France+1
43England-1
55IrelandNo change
66AustraliaNo change
78Wales+1
87Scotland-1
99ArgentinaNo change
1010JapanNo change

Both nations seemed to have impressed their judges, climbing a place each in the rankings, but France certainly take the place of flavour of the month, given they now find themselves third in the world.

World rankings are never a guarantee of a winner and loser, going into a game, as Scotland have managed to prove throughout the Six Nations 2022, but as a general overview, I am sure that pundits will be thinking that third-place France will have an advantage of their rivals, four places below.

Recent Six Nations Results

One of the reasons for the shift in rankings is due to recent results of Wales and France. Let's take a look at what's happened in recent weeks.

Wales

MatchScoreWinner
Ireland vs Wales29-7Ireland
Wales vs Scotland20-17Wales
England vs Wales23-19England

France

MatchScoreWinner
France vs Italy37-10France
France vs Ireland30-24France
Scotland vs France17-36France

Analysis

Compared to last year, Wales will be kicking themselves, having dropped from a title win of four wins from five to a mere one win from three, so far. France, on the other hand, look in the best form of their lives, having lined up three victories from as many matches, with the Grand Slam firmly in their sights. If I were to go purely on form, France would get my money for sure. Let's take a look at one of the reasons for their success.

Six Nations 2022 Points Scorers

Looking at which weapons both sides have in their arsenals is a great way to discover the likelihood of them making successful strikes in opposition territory; and the best way to evaluate such attacking strengths, going into this match, is to look at their scoring power in previous weeks. I will break down the numbers below.

Wales

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Dan Biggar190241
Josh Adams51000
Taine Basham51000
Tomas Francis51000
Kieran Hardy51000
Nick Tompkins51000
Callum Sheedy20100

France

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Melvyn Jaminet450680
Damian Penaud153000
Gabin Villière153000
Gaël Fickou102000
Cyril Baille51000
Jonathan Danty51000
Antoine Dupont51000
Anthony Jelonch51000
Yoram Moefana51000
Romain Ntamack20100

Analysis of Players and Points

As you can see, Wales are far below France on both the total number of points (46 to 112) and in their number of scorers. France have a variety of dangerous attacking options and will be looking to explore all avenues to stick points on the board. Can Wales hope to match the intensity of the Continentals? Given that Wales are not even half of the way there, I am not of the mind that they can.

Wales vs France Winner: French Fire Wills Wales Woe

This is going to be a big match to watch, but I think the result is a foregone conclusion. France have been a wrecking ball in the competition so far, and for this match, I do not see Wales being up to snuff to stop them. I want this to be a good fight, for the excitement, but I think we will be seeing a French side that is dominant from start to finish. At the full-time whistle, the cheers of the fans in blue will be heard all around Cardiff.

France to Win