Italy vs Scotland Prediction: Six Nations 2022 Week Four

Banner with the Italy and Scotland flags, for the Six Nations.
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 12th of March at 14:15 GMT
PredictionScotland to Win
OddsScotland to Win @ 1.06
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Scotland to Win
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Odds : 1.06
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Saturday, the 12th of March, is going to be a big date for Italy. Of all of the Continentals' matches, playing Scotland is seen as the easiest chance for them to bag a win in the Six Nations 2022 championship. 'Easiest', however - and that's if you believe that opinion - should not be interpreted as easy. Italy are going to have an uphill struggle, and I believe the Stadio Olimpico may still see vast swathes of disappointed faces of the home fans. Let's find out why.

italy-versus-scotland

Background on Italy vs Scotland

A lot of rugby fans may not realise that the first Italy vs Scotland test took place before the premier European tournament of the time, the Five Nations, expanded to the Six Nations we now know and love. Indeed, the first encounter between these two sides took place a few years earlier, in 1996, when Murrayfield saw the home side clinch a 29-22 victory against the Italians. Let's look at the difference in results from the two sides below:

Italy WinsScotland WinsDraws
8250

With over 75% of the wins, one could easily see that this may go Scotland's way. Things don't always come down to history, though, so let's take a look at some of the key factors, going into this match, to determine the validity of that argument.

Factors on Paper

There are quite a few big influences in any rugby test like this. Let's break down some of those factors.

The Advantage of Playing at Home

Normally, I would have a lot to say about the home advantage - jubilant fans showering support on their team and driving them to 80 minutes of glory. In this instance, though? I can't see the Italians drumming up enough adoration to bridge the gap in quality. Screaming and shouting for the home side will be one thing, but when gli Azzurri are already down by a truck load of points in the first 60 minutes, a boost to carry them through the remaining 20 minutes of a hammering will not make much difference. In this case, I think that playing at home advantage presents little importance in this fixture.

New World Rankings

With there being an update in the world rankings, it seems poignant to take a look at the new perception of the teams by World Rugby.

New World RankingOld World RankingCountryShift
11South AfricaNo change
22New ZealandNo change
34France+1
43England-1
55IrelandNo change
66AustraliaNo change
78Wales+1
87Scotland-1
99ArgentinaNo change
1010JapanNo change

So, that's the top ten, and you can see Scotland sitting pretty - although somewhat disappointedly, given their drop in place - in eight place. Where are Italy? The Continentals do not have what it takes to climb into the top-ten list at the moment, so they are left out in the cold, at spot number 14. That is a huge difference in quality between the two sides, and I feel this is going to show in the final result.

Recent Six Nations Results

For a clearer picture on how both sides could perform, going into this clash, it seems a good idea to look at results from the early rounds. I have present those below:

Italy

MatchScoreWinner
France vs Italy37-10France
Italy vs England0-33England
Ireland vs Italy57-6Ireland

Scotland

MatchScoreWinner
Scotland vs England20-17Scotland
Wales vs Scotland20-17Wales
Scotland vs France17-36France

Analysis

Neither side can boast of any major success early doors, but Italy certainly seem the worse off, given that they haven't managed to pick up even a draw so far, building on their over-30 matches of woe in the Six Nations. Does that mean that Italy are sure to lose against Scotland this Saturday? There are no guarantees in sport, but this does seem like the closest you can get to one.

Six Nations 2022 Points Scorers

Points mean prizes, and the same goes for rugby. If you can't get points on the board, you do not have a hope in Hell of winning a match. Let's take a look at both sides' scoring potentials, by looking at previous successful plays.

Italy

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Paolo Garbisi80120
Tommaso Menoncello51000
Edoardo Padovani30010

Scotland

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Finn Russell250270
Rory Darge51000
Darcy Graham51000
Duhan van der Merwe51000
Ben White51000
Stuart Hogg20100

Analysis of Players and Points

Not a grand deal can be said of either side in terms of success on the scoreboard, but Scotland have at least managed to achieve something. In Italy's case, 16 points in three games is woeful, and essentially counts for nothing in the grand scheme of things. It is certainly not looking pretty for the Italians.

Italy vs Scotland Winner: Here We Go Again

How do you really rate a team that can barely put any points on the board, never mind win a match? I would like to be kind to Italy - I really would. I would like to give them a chance in this match with Scotland, but it seems the only thing that they have going for them is the home advantage, and that is not going to make a fat load of difference when the Continentals lack the fundamentals. Scotland, on the other hand, have a world-class side, and will be on the offensive from the opening whistle. It would be difficult to see them not coming away with success against a definitively weaker side in the first five minutes, at least, never mind the rest of the match. For this one, I am going with a win for Scotland. They may not have the best looking campaign card at the moment, but I can say with some confidence that I believer they will at least be up two wins from four after this weekend.

Scotland to Win