Ireland vs Scotland Prediction: Six Nations 2022 Week Five

Banner with the Irish and Scottish flags, for the Six Nations.
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 19th of March at 16:45 GMT
PredictionIreland to Win
OddsIreland to Win @ 1.14
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Ireland to Win
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Odds : 1.13
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The Aviva Stadium is in for a grand treat, for the Six Nations 2022, as the Ireland vs Scotland match graces week five. All eyes are going to be on the game, as a win for the home side could potentially mean Ireland pulling the rug from under France, in terms of snatching the title away from the Continentals. Before the Irish start celebrating early, however, they first have to make sure they perform against Scotland. Are they up to the final task or will Scotland find a way to rob them of the prize? Let's look at the key factors of this clash.

ireland-versus-scotland

Background on Ireland vs Scotland

It's been a long road since the first Ireland vs Scotland game. Indeed, their first match-up was all the way back in 1877, when Scotland were the first to draw blood. 137 games were to follow in their history, and I have included the results from those below.

Ireland WinsScotland WinsDraws
67665

If you were to pick a side to win this round, based on this history, you would probably be as good flipping a coin. One win difference is not enough for me to call a winner, based on this information, so we will have to look at some of the other, more decisive influences.

Factors on Paper

There are several theoretical notions that may end up have critical sway in this match. I have had a look at these, and broken them down into who I think will be crowned winner at this end of this game, because of them.

The Advantage of Playing at Home

I do not think there has ever been a rugby team that has complained about the atmosphere at a home game, for an international test. Ireland will be glad that they have the home advantage in this last test, and I am sure they will use every ounce of Irish passion to clobber Scotland as best they can. I think the crowd at the Aviva is going to be a big influence, so that is one point to nil for Ireland, in predicting them the winners of this match.

Recent Six Nations Results

Another key factor is recent form. A team may have all of the history in the world, but if they have not been up to par in recent time, there history will count for nothing. Below, I have included the current Six Nations standings, as well as break-downs of both sides' performances in earlier weeks.

Six Nations 2022 Standings from Week Four

PointsNationWinsDrawsLossesPoints DifferenceBonus Try Points
18France400562
16Ireland301844
10England202172
10Scotland202-82
6Wales103-272
0Italy004-1220

Ireland

MatchScoreWinner
Ireland vs Wales29-7Ireland
France vs Ireland30-24France
Ireland vs Italy57-6Ireland
England vs Ireland15-32Ireland

Scotland

MatchScoreWinner
Scotland vs England20-17Scotland
Wales vs Scotland20-17Wales
Scotland vs France17-36France
Italy vs Scotland22-33Scotland

Analysis

You may be inclined to think that a one-win difference is not going to be enough to separate the two teams, but I think this tell-tale sign should have alarm bells ringing for Scotland fans, going into this game. Ireland have had more consistent success in this competition, and I believe it makes them more likely to grab greater glory in this match.

Six Nations 2022 Points Scorers

Rugby is about getting more points on the board than your opponent. No team will solely focus on training attacking play, of course, but then you can not score points on defence. With that in mind, let's evaluate both sides' capabilities at getting the ball across the line and over the posts, to see whose potential gives them the greater chance of a prettier scoreline after 80 minutes.

Ireland

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Johnny Sexton2901030
Joey Carbery181510
James Lowe153000
Andrew Conway102000
Jamison Gibson-Park102000
Michael Lowry102000
Bundee Aki51000
Ryan Baird51000
Finlay Bealham51000
Jack Conan51000
Mack Hansen51000
Hugo Keenan51000
Peter O'Mahony51000
Garry Ringrose51000
Kieran Treadwell51000
Josh van der Flier51000
Total142201540

Scotland

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Finn Russell330670
Chris Harris102000
Darcy Graham102000
Stuart Hogg71100
Rory Darge51000
Sam Johnson51000
Duhan van der Merwe51000
Ben White15000
Total809770

Analysis of Players and Points

I think these statistics are decisive. In all areas but kicking penalties, Ireland come up trumps. They have more tries, more conversions, more players to have scored, more total points, and the list goes on. If these statistics are not the ultimate show of Ireland's strength over Scotland, I do not know what could be.

Ireland vs Scotland Winner: Could This Be the Title Game?

Well, could this be the title-deciding game? It certainly will be, if France loses to England. Whether or not I think that will happen, you will have to find out in my prediction for that match. In the meantime, I have a lot of faith in Ireland doing their bit, by grabbing the win on Saturday. I like the Scotland side, and they have shown potential in this tournament, out of the gate, but I do not think they are up to the challenge of a more dynamic, more structured, and more deadly Irish team. I think there are going to be scenes of joy around the Aviva Stadium, by the final whistle, and all of the smiling faces will be gilded in green.

Ireland to Win