France vs England Prediction: Six Nations 2022 Week Five

Banner with the French and English flags, for the Six Nations.
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 19th of March at 20:00 GMT
PredictionFrance to Win
OddsFrance to Win @ 1.33
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What better match could rugby fans hope for, to end the Six Nations 2022, than France vs England? This game holds the title in the balance: if France win, it's a Grand Slam for them; if England win, things could very much go Ireland's way. Who do I think will take the win? Well, I think fans of France rugby will enjoy what I have to say.

Background on France vs England

Much water has flowed under the bride since the first France vs England game, back in 1906. Below, I have outlined the wins for both sides, to see which team has historically dominated the fixture.

France WinsEngland WinsDraws
41607

England have held the reigns for most of the over-100-year history of their rivalry, so you would be forgiven for thinking this match may hail another chapter of glory for the away side. I believe this dominance shows that this bout will certainly be a hotly contested rugby match, but I am still predicting a French win at this stage. Want to know why? There are many factors on paper that I think will tip the balance, so let's take a look at them.

Factors on Paper

There are quite a few key notions that may theoretically influence this big match. I have outlined these below.

The Advantage of Playing at Home

The French have a proud national rugby identity, and that is none better seen than at a home match, at the Stade de France. If France wanted the best controllable conditions for this game, they have got them. The stadium will be loud and proud in favour of the French, and England are going to feel a lot of pressure to perform, after two more welcoming weeks previously. I can see this factor giving France the edge they need in the match.

Recent Six Nations Results

Another important influence in this match is recent form. The best way to analyse this is to take a look at the results from the first four weeks, which I have presented below.

Six Nations 2022 Standings from Week Four

PointsNationWinsDrawsLossesPoints DifferenceBonus Try Points
18France400562
16Ireland301844
10England202172
10Scotland202-82
6Wales103-272
0Italy004-1220

France

MatchScoreWinner
France vs Italy37-10France
France vs Ireland30-24France
Scotland vs France17-36France
Wales vs France9-13France

England

MatchScoreWinner
Scotland vs England20-17Scotland
Italy vs England0-33England
England vs Wales23-19England
England vs Ireland15-32Ireland

Analysis

England have had a so-so campaign thus far, with two wins out of four games, but the French have been superb, maintaining a flawless record. Nobody can deny their perfect score, so I have to give all credit to France: they are definitely going to have the edge, going into this one.

Six Nations 2022 Points Scorers

Another important point - pun intended - is that of how rugby teams are able to get over the line and to ping the ball over the posts. One of the key aspects of rugby is attacking strategy - how a team is able to incorporate all of their players into attacking moves and convert the efforts of all 15 players into points on the board. With that in mind, let's review France vs England from how they have managed in the earlier stages of the competition.

France

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Melvyn Jaminet4407100
Damian Penaud153000
Gabin Villière153000
Gaël Fickou102000
Cyril Baille51000
Jonathan Danty51000
Antoine Dupont51000
Anthony Jelonch51000
Yoram Moefana51000
Paul Willemse51000
Romain Ntamack20100
Total116148100

England

PlayerPointsNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop Goals
Marcus Smith6324150
Jamie George102000
Elliot Daly51000
Alex Dombrandt51000
Kyle Sinckler51000
Total8874150

Analysis of Players and Points

116 points to 88 speaks volumes. 11 scorers to five also speaks volumes. France have been in the driving seat all competition, and I would be surprised if there were any difference in this game. England would have to bring something immense to this game to turn the tide, and the team does sometimes struggle to rise to big competitions.

France vs England Winner: When It Comes to Le Crunch, France Will Come Up Trumps

Much as it kills me to say it, I think France are going to win this, to take their final step on the journey towards the Grand Slam final. They may not have history on their side, but they have the home advantage and a good run of recent performances, combined with the know-how consistently to ensure they can grab points and strike killer blows. France are the favourites, and with good reason. France are going to grab the win, and Paris will be electric for the well-deserved celebrations after.

France to Win