England vs Wales Prediction: Six Nations 2022 Week Three

Banner with the English and Welsh flags, for the Six Nations.
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 26th of February at 16:45 GMT
PredictionEngland to Win
OddsEngland to Win @ 1.14
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England to Win
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The most intense clash of week three of the Six Nations 2022 will get underway on Saturday, the 26th of February at Twickenham. The stadium will be buzzing with England fans getting their first taste of a home game this competition, but will Wales be up for a fight till the 80th minute. After disappointing results against Scotland and Ireland respectively, which team will be able to put the fire back in their Six Nations campaign?

england-versus-wales

Background on England vs Wales

1881 marked the first time these two rugby giants first clashed, and there has been a lot of epic matches in the 137 tests that followed. Take a look at the following table for a full summary:

England WinsWales WinsDraws
656012

As the table shows, there's not a lot in it between England and Wales. Both teams will have to bring their A games if they have any hope of making the home fans proud or creating a double upset on away ground.

Factors on Paper

There are a few key components that can determine the advantages and disadvantages each team has, going into a huge clash like this. Let's take a look at some of the more prominent factors.

The Advantage of Playing at Home

Home advantage is an obvious first port of call. The idea that playing on familiar soil, with a surge of friendly fans, is an idea that transcends rugby because it is so predominant in sport in general. Of course, Wales are no strangers to big tests in big competitions, but turning up to an 82,000-strong stadium full of white shirts ready to cheer down any opposition? That's a big challenge for any team! If anybody is up to pulling off an upset, it is Wales, but I still think the home advantage could mean a win for England.

Rankings

If you want to know what the common consensus is on who is going to win an international rugby match, there is one easy way to find out: look at world rankings. They may not be an exact predictor for winners, but they do tell you whom rugby boffins think have the stronger team.

World RankingCountry
1South Africa
2New Zealand
3England
4France
5Ireland
6Australia
7Scotland
8Wales
9Argentina
10Japan

Looking at the above table, World Rugby thinks that England should be clear winners against Wales, given their five-place difference. You have to remember that England lost to Scotland for the second year in a row in the first week of this tournament, so this status is not a nail in Wales' coffin. All in all, it still gives you a solid idea of how the world sees this match-up going.

Recent Six Nations Results

Want to know how a team will perform in their next match? Take a look at their form. With that in mind, let me present the data for both sides from the first two weeks of the competition.

England

MatchScoreWinner
Scotland vs England20-17Scotland
Italy vs England0-33England

Wales

MatchScoreWinner
Ireland vs Wales29-7Ireland
Wales vs Scotland20-17Wales

Analysis

If you were looking at results from both sides' Autumn Internationals campaigns, you may have a very different idea of whom was going to win this match. Having looked at the first two weeks though? The results give you a different picture. With an upsetting win each, against Scotland and Ireland respectively, this game is going to be a lot closer than most expected weeks ago.

Head Coaches

It should be obvious that Head Coaches have a huge effect on their teams. Sure, odd teams here and there have coped without a Head Coach - just take a look at Harlequins winning the Premiership in 2021 for a very recent example of success - but teams are often moulded and made by strong, keen, and dedicated leadership.

Both England and Wales are currently headed up by two men from Down Under, Eddie Jones and Wayne Pivac. Some could argue that this match-up, from a managerial perspective, is more a trans-Pacific battle than a Northern-Hemisphere duel, each Head Coach bringing a slice of what they have learned abroad to the shores of the Home Nations.

Eddie Jones adds a fiery passion that helped him take teams like Japan to beating South Africa in an amazing 34-32 victory in the 2015 Rugby World Cup; meanwhile, Wayne Pivac is a cool-under-pressure type who had success taking Fiji to win the 2004 Pacific Tri-Nations. Both managers boast CVs with success with smaller nations, so they appear pretty evenly matched on this end. Given that Jones has the greater experience battling the giants of rugby, however, one could see England creating the better gameplay and claiming the W.

England vs Wales Winner: Twickenham Will Roar

Whilst I can not guarantee you a winner of this match, I can certainly say with great confidence that England are going to make a meal out of playing Wales. The Welsh have a lot of fresh talent in their side, and they are going to look to throw all of it at an English side that are prone to making mistakes and giving away silly penalties. That being said, I still think that England have the quality, the set-up, the leadership, and the home leadership that they need to clinch victory.

What does that mean then? In this fierce battle on Saturday, I am predicting England to do just that little bit more and grab the win. Twickenham will roar at the 80th minute.

England to Win