Italy vs Samoa Prediction – Autumn Internationals 2022: Who Will Win?

Italy vs samoa Italy vs samoa
TournamentAutumn Internationals
Timetable5th November 2022 13:00 BST
PredictionItaly to win
OddsX (Bet €100 and win €X if Italy wins)
Italy to win
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Italy will take on Samoa at the Stadio Plebiscito, Padua, on Saturday the 5th of November. It is the first of three rugby Autumn Internationals that Italy will be playing in November - their other two games will seriously test them since they will take on Australia and South Africa. However, before they encounter these two formidable opponents, they will be taking on the very proud South Pacific islanders, and it is usually an entertaining match when these two teams collide. If you enjoy doing some rugby union betting, then please read on because we are going to give you some useful stats and our overall prediction for this game.

🏠 Overview of Italy

The Italian rugby team, we think it is safe to say, are used to being the whipping boys of the rugby world – before they beat Wales in the 2022 Six Nations by a point, they had been on a losing streak of 36 matches. In fact, this win, which took place at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff, was their very first away win in their Six Nations History, which goes all the way back to the year 2000. When it comes to all types of international rugby, they longest losing streak stands at 32 matches.

Italy and Samoa have crossed paths on seven occasions, and the Pacific islanders have come out on top five times, while the Italians have won twice. This is a match that is long overdue, since they last played each other back in November of 2014, where the Italians came out on top with a score of 24-13. They played each other five months prior to that too, but that time the Samoans won 15-0. When these two teams meet on the rugby field, it is usually a relatively low scoring game, but they are always enthralling as neither team give a quarter.

How did Italy do in the 2022 Six Nations? Well, apart from their previously mentioned win against the Welsh, they lost their other four matches, although it must be said that their defeats were not as heavy as they usually are. Despite this, they still picked up yet another wooden spoon, which gives them a grand total of 14. This means that from the 22 6 Nations that they have participated in, they have finished at the bottom of the table on 14 occasions. Not a record that they can be particularly proud of.

During the summer of 2022, Italy went on a tour of Europe where they took on Portugal, Romania, and Georgia. In their first match against Portugal, which was the first time in more than 25 years that Portugal had hosted a Tier 1 team in a Test match, they came out on top with a score of 38-31. For their second match, they travelled to Bucharest to take on Romania, a team they had not played outside of a World Cup since 2004, and they picked up a very comfortable 45-13 win. Their final tour match was against Georgia, which they lost 28-19 - this was Georgia's very first win over a Tier 1 country.

👨‍💼 Strength of the Italy Manager

Keiran Crowley, a previous World Cup winner with New Zealand, became the head coach of Italy back in 2019 when he replaced Franco Smith. Two of his main strengths are that he has a winning mentality and plenty of coaching experience under his belt. Between 2002 and 2003, he was the main selector for the kiwis, and in 2007 he coached the All Blacks Under-19s to World Championship glory in Ireland.

He then spent eight years as the coach of the Canadian national team, where he took them to the final of the Churchill Cup on two occasions. He then moved to Italy to become Benetton's head coach, and he led them to their very first Play-Off in the Guinness PRO14 in 2019, where they narrowly missed out on a win against Munster. So, it is clear that he has what it takes to get the best out of his players.

Another thing that he has going in his favour is the fact that he knows Italian rugby really well, which means that he is aware of all of the young talent that is coming through the ranks. By picking the young talent, he can nurture them, give them the international experience that they need, and hopefully improve the quality of Italian rugby for many years to come. He knows that it will be a long and hard task, but we feel that he has the quality to make the Italian rugby team more competitive than it has ever been.

⭐ Italy Players to Watch

When it comes to the Italian rugby team, many will assume that they do not have much talent at their disposal which is why they always go on those long losing streaks. However, Italy actually have a number of quality players in their squad, and in the following table we are going to have a look at three Italian players that you should keep a close eye on during the Autumn Nations series in November.

PlayerPositionCaps for ItalyClub TeamStar Qualities
Tommaso AllanFull-Back, Fly-Half, Centre63HarlequinsGreat passing skills, quick with the ball, and quality goal-kicking
Montanna IoaneWinger14Melbourne RebelsStrong ball carrier, quick, and hard to tackle
Edoardo PadovaniFull-Back or Wing38Benetton RugbyGood rugby brain, very physical, and great hands

✈️ Overview of Samoa

Samoa has never had one of the best teams in the rugby world, but they are a team that not many nations relish playing against because there is one thing that you are guaranteed when you take on the Samoans and that is big hits. Every Samoan is honoured to be called up to represent their nation, so they leave everything out there on the field whenever they take to it. When they play to the best of their ability, they can give any top rugby teams a good game. The likes of England know what we are talking about here, since they often play Samoa in Autumn rugby, and in 2010 and 2014, they won by just 13 and 19 points.

In the summer of 2022, Samoa took on Australia A, Tonga, and Fiji in the Pacific Nations Cup and won all three matches to claim the trophy. They beat Australia A 31-26, Tonga 34-18, and then overturned a 17-point deficit against the Fijians to win 23-20. Fiji, Tonga, and Australia A are definitely no mugs, so this is yet another indication that shows that the Samoans can cause plenty of issues to their opponents.

Samoa will usually play three matches in Autumn against Tier 1 opponents, but from all of the Autumn tests 2022 that are taking place this year, this match against Italy is their only match against Tier 1 opposition. They will play two other matches against Romania and Georgia, and will expect to win those two games pretty comfortably. While we would prefer to see them take on better opponents, it is great to see them give the likes of Georgia and Romania a chance to improve themselves by playing against some quality players - the more quality teams we have in the rugby world, the better it is for everyone.

👨‍💼 Strength of the Samoa Manager

The current manager of the Samoan rugby team is Seilala Mapusua, who is a retired rugby player that was capped 26 times by his country. One of his main strengths as a manager, in our humble opinion, is the fact that he knows the game inside and out due to the fact that he played it for close to two decades at a top level. For example, from 2006 until 2011 he played for the London Irish in the United Kingdom, where he made 126 appearances and scored 105 points. He also played for the Highlanders and Otago, two quality rugby teams from New Zealand.

Another thing that we think will work in his favour when it comes to managing the players that he picks to represent Samoa is the fact that they will all deeply respect him because he has been there and collected the t-shirt. It is always easier to be told what to do by someone who you know has the qualifications and experience to do so. He had a steely determination as a player, and this is something that will stand him in good stead as the manager of the Samoan international team because he has a lot of work to do in order to develop local talent into world class players that can help to make the Samoan rugby team great again.

One of the issues that works against the Samoan rugby team is that many of their top players decide to go and play for the likes of New Zealand, Australia, and England. If Mapusa can get Samoa back to being one of the top dogs in international rugby, then it will be less likely that they will lose their best players to other nations, which will obviously work in their favour in the long run.

⭐ Samoa Players to Watch

Samoa have managed to produce a number of quality players over the years but, as we said above, many of them opt to represent another nation where they will have a better chance of success. However, the current Samoa squad that was selected for their Autumn Nations Cup 2022 match has a number of talented players in it, and we are now going to give you a table where we provide you with three Samoan players that you should keep an eye on during their matches against the Italians, Georgians, and Romanians.

PlayerPositionCaps for SamoaClub TeamStar Qualities
Duncan Paia'AuaCentre0RC ToulonnaisGreat passing skills, quick feet, and strong with the ball in hand
Theo McFarlandLock/Flanker2SaracensSpectacular handling skills, agility, and power
Steven LuatuaBlinside Flanker, Number 8, Lock0Bristol BearsGood rugby brain, strong at the breakdown, and good leadership skills

💯Italy vs Samoa Betting Odds

There are many top sportsbooks that fans of Rugby in the United Kingdom can sign up with in order to bet on this game between Italy and Samoa. In fact, thanks to new UK betting sites appearing regularly, the world of sports betting is very competitive, and this can make it tricky for rugby punters like yourself to find the best bookie for you that is offer top rugby odds

However, today happens to be your lucky day because in the following section of this prediction we have provided you with a table that shows some of the top bookmakers and their odds for UK rugby bettors who are considering placing a wager on this Italy vs Samoa match.

⚡ Best Match Winner Odds

At the current time of writing, the odds for this game are yet to be released by the top sports betting sites. However, we will keep checking and will update the table below as soon as they are available.

Italy vs samoa Italy vs samoa

🥇 Who Will Win? Italy vs Samoa Prediction

If this match was being played in Samoa, then we would definitely be backing the Samoans to win since the Italians do not do too well away from home. However, since it is going to be played in Italy, it is a different story, and the fact that thousands of Italians will be cheering the home team on is something that will definitely spur them on. At this current moment in time, we feel that these two sides are pretty event matched, but we are going to go for an Italy win based purely on the fact that they have home advantage.

So, if you register with a new bookie and get a free bet no deposit that you can make use of, we would suggest that you put the money on Italy to win. It will be a close match with probably just a score or two in it, but we are backing the Italians to get their Autumn international campaign off to a winning start.

Our match prediction: Italy to win.

Italy to win