The Transformation of Nottingham Forest this Premier League Season

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Author: Jack Guing,

Last season Nottingham Forest struggled to stay in the Premier League as they finished 17th and received a points deduction for their breaking of the PSR rules. Nearly a year on and Forest look like they could qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top 4. They are currently only 6 points behind leaders Liverpool following a 1-1 draw with Arne Slot’s side, although Liverpool have a game in hand.

At this moment, Forest are in the title race but it will be difficult to maintain their current momentum. They are a difficult team to break down as seen in the game against leaders Liverpool but they also have excellent attacking talent with Chris Wood, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson Odoi in particular all having excellent seasons, with Wood their top scorer with 13 goals.

Stats Comparison Last Season vs This Season

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Nottingham Forest have made dramatic improvements in the league table this season moving from 17th to 2nd as of writing. Nottingham Forest accumulated 32 points in 38 league games last season while this season they have accumulated 41 points in 21 games. Their points per game (PPG) average is 1.95 whereas last season it was 0.84. If Forest continue their current PPG average they will end up on 74 points.

From the 2014/15 season to the 2023/24 season, teams needed between 66 and 76 points to get into the top four. These are the points tallies from those campaigns:

  • 66 points – 2015/16, 2019/20
  • 67 points – 2020/21
  • 68 points – 2023/24
  • 70 points – 2014/15
  • 71 points – 2018/19, 2021/22, 2022/23
  • 75 points – 2017/18
  • 76 points – 2016/17

Last season Nottingham Forest scored a total of 49 goals, the 17th most in the league, a goal per game average of 1.28 goals per game. This season they have scored 30 goals in 21 games, the 13th most in the league and a goals per game average of 1.42. With regards to clean sheets, last season Nottingham Forest kept just 4 clean sheets in 38 games, which once again was the 17th most in the league.

This season they have the most clean sheets in the league with 9 clean sheets. Nottingham Forest won 9 games last season which was the 17th most in the league. This season they have the second most wins in the league with 12 wins, with only leaders Liverpool having more wins with 14. Forest have conceded just 20 goals this season with only Arsenal conceding less. They have conceded an average of 0.95 goals per game. Last season they conceded 67 goals which was an average of 1.76 goals per game.

€431.55 Million Squad

Nottingham Forest have made vast improvements from this season compared to last season, but when you look at the money they have spent it does not come as a huge shock. They were promoted to the Premier League in 2022 and since then they have spent €431.55 million across 3 seasons, an average spend of €143.85 million a season, putting them as one of the highest spenders in the Premier League for this time period.

Most recently they spent €105.50 million in the summer and brought in players such as Elliot Anderson (€41.2m) and Nikola Milenkovic (€12.30m) with both having excellent seasons to this point. Nottingham Forest’s squad is unrecognisable to the one which got promoted in 2022, and the money they have spent now looks like being rewarded. They have signed a large number of players over the last few seasons, but they are now gelling and they continue to climb the table as a result.

"Nottingham Forest’s squad is unrecognisable s this seson, they have conceded an average of 0.95 goals per game. Last season they conceded 67 goals which was an average of 1.76 goals per game. "

Nottingham Forest’s rise comes as a surprise to many because of where they finished last season. They have spent a lot of money but this does not hinder the achievement they have made this season. Their rise has been one of the stories of the season and they are currently in the title race, could they go all the way and lift the title?

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✒️ Jack Guing – Football and GAA Sports Expert

Jack Guing has a strong knowledge of the sport of GAA through the lens of performance analysis with multiple GAA teams. He holds a master's degree in sports performance. He has a huge love of all things sports, especially golf, soccer and GAA. He uses statistics and performance analysis in order to predict the outcome of matches and events.

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