Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

liverpool-vs-man-city-logo liverpool-vs-man-city-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:45 GMT, 10th Mar 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds3.80
BookmakerBetUK Sports
Back the Draw!
The best odds
1.
Bet​UK Sports
Odds : 3.80
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Leo​Vegas
Odds : 3.80
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10​bet Sport
Odds : 3.70
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liverpool-vs-man-city-logo liverpool-vs-man-city-logo

While it’s far too early to describe this Premier League match as a potential title decider, a win for the Reds would move them clear of their fierce rivals at the top of the table. Conversely, City would overtake Jurgen Klopp’s team with a victory, enabling them to take a decisive step towards a historic fourth consecutive title win. Of course, this would also require the Citizens to record just a third victory at Anfield since 1981, with their 4-1 triumph in February 2021 their sole success in a staggering 21 years. But will they be successful in this aim, or will Liverpool extend their impressive unbeaten run in front of their fans?

🏆 Liverpool vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

These two teams met in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium on November 25th, sharing the spoils in a tense 1-1 draw. City controlled possession here and were more of a threat in the attacking third, producing an xG of 1.53 (compared to just 0.72 for the Reds). However, Liverpool grew stronger as the match progressed, eventually equalising through Trent Alexander-Arnold’s superb late strike.

This clash was a war of attrition at times as both teams struggled to consistently impose their game plan and style of play. Little will change at Anfield where Liverpool, who have completed 1,451 ball recoveries and attempted 81 tackles in the final third in 2023/24, like to deploy aggressive and ceaseless counter-pressing to disrupt the opposition.

Conversely, City will strive to control the tempo of the game and dominate possession. Pep Guardiola’s men have completed a staggering 92.88% of their short and medium passes so far this season.

So, although Liverpool and Man City average 3.63 and 4.00 shot-creating actions per 90 respectively in 2023/24, I expect much of this match to take place in the middle of the park. The action will also be compacted by each side’s average defensive line with City conducting their defensive actions 50.57 metres away from their goal line.

Liverpool’s average defensive line measures 47.95 metres from their goal and neither side is likely to compromise this or take a backward step in such an important game. However, it’s hard to escape the magnitude of this EPL matchup, and the simple fact remains that both teams would probably be happy with a draw given the potential consequences of defeat.

My Prediction: 🏆 Liverpool 1 – 1 Man City ⚽

💯 Liverpool vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

If you like to wager with the best new betting sites in the UK, Mybettingsite.uk has you covered. These entities are all offering a wide selection of betting markets on the clash between Liverpool and Man City, including the match result, the over/under on the total number of goals, and BTTS (or not).

🏅 Liverpool vs Manchester City: Match Winner

Notwithstanding Liverpool’s dominance over Man City at Anfield in the EPL era, the Reds are the betting underdogs to win here at an average price of 2.90. This implies a 34.48% probability of a home win. City can be backed at around 2.20 to prevail which gives them a 45.45% chance of securing a potentially pivotal victory on Merseyside. The draw is priced at 3.75, so this is the statistically least likely outcome with an implied probability of 26.66%.

Team
Liverpool to Win2.902.902.812.812.90
Man City to Win2.202.252.152.152.22
Draw3.703.803.703.703.80

⚽ Liverpool vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

Overall, both teams have scored in 67% of Liverpool’s 27 league matches this season, with this percentage increasing to 77% at Anfield. The Reds have kept five clean sheets at home with only Man United having stopped them from scoring in front of their fans. Both sides have found the net in 62% of City’s 13 away matches (including three of their previous four) and their clean sheet at Bournemouth was their first in seven road trips since October 29th.

Yes/No
Yes1.441.431.401.401.45
No2.702.632.652.652.62

🥅 Liverpool vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Man City’s increased defensive vulnerability has been most evident on the road, as despite scoring slightly less on their travels, some 77% of their away matches in 2023/24 have seen over 2.5 goals scored. This has occurred in just 50% of their home games. Interestingly, 77% of Liverpool’s 13 home matches have yielded over 2.5 goals, although the Reds have scored 37 of the 48 goals registered at Anfield this season.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.501.461.461.461.50
Under 2.5 Goals2.552.552.472.472.54

✔️ Liverpool vs Manchester City - Betting Tips

It’s curious to think of Man City as the favourites here, especially given Liverpool’s pedigree at Anfield and the fact that they haven’t lost here in the Premier League since October 2022. However, there are plenty of markets and potential strategies to explore when wagering on this match, so I’ve prepared some expert football betting tips to help you identify the best value wagers.

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: Despite being the statistically least likely outcome at Anfield with an implied probability of just 26.66%, the odds don’t necessarily take into account the importance of this match from the perspective of the EPL title race. Make no mistake; a defeat for either side will deliver a devastating blow to their hopes of becoming champions. It should be noted that the 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture also saw Liverpool and Man City cancel each other out for extended periods. So, consider backing the draw here at the enhanced price of 3.80 with BetUK Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Mo Salah as an Anytime Scorer: Mo Salah appears to be on the cusp of a return ahead of this seismic Premier League clash, although I expect him to start from the bench at Anfield. Still, it’s hard to imagine he won’t play some part in this fixture, especially given his record of scoring seven goals and contributing four assists in just 13 matches against the Citizens. His recent injury means that there’s significant value in backing the Egyptian forward as an anytime goalscorer and you can get on this at a price of 2.50 with 10Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back the Score Draw: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you could also consider backing the score draw at the highly competitive price of price of 4.33 with Mr Mega Sports. Certainly, if this game is to end in a tie, it’s likely that both sides will score, with odds implying a 71.42% probability of this outcome occurring. There hasn’t been a goalless draw in this fixture for 14 matches in all competitions either since an EPL encounter at Anfield on October 7th, 2018. Even then Riyad Mahrez missed an 85th-minute penalty that could have won the game.

1️⃣ Liverpool Update

We’ve already touched on Liverpool’s impressive unbeaten run at Anfield - Leeds United were the last opposition team to triumph here on October 29th, 2022. However, this remains the Reds’ only defeat in their previous 54 league matches at Anfield, following Fulham’s shock 1-0 victory on Merseyside back in March 2021. Liverpool have also scored more goals at home than any other side (37) this season, while only Man United and Arsenal have escaped Anfield without defeat. Overall, the Reds have lost just one of their last 20 EPL matches, accumulating 14 wins and 47 points during this timeframe.

Last 5 Games
Nottm Forest 0
Liverpool 1
02.03.24
Premier League
Liverpool 3
Southampton 0
28.02.24
FA Cup
Chelsea 1
Liverpool 1
25.02.24
EFL Cup
Liverpool 4
Luton Town 1
21.02.24
Premier League
Brentford 1
Liverpool 4
17.02.24
Premier League

Mo Salah is nearing a return after a thigh complaint and is likely to at least make the squad for the visit of Man City. Midfield pair Curtis Jones (ankle injury) and Ryan Gravenberch (foot) may also feature against the Citizens, but goalkeeper Alisson (hamstring) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) remain unavailable for selection. Striker Diogo Jota (knee) has been ruled out until April, and Thiago (thigh) and Stefan Bajcetic (general fitness) are still weeks away from making a competitive appearance. Of course, the Reds remain without seasoned centre back Joel Matip who is out until September with an ACL rupture.

PlayerReason
Mohamed Salah Hamstring Injury
Ryan Gravenberch Foot Injury
Curtis Jones Ankle Injury
Alisson Hamstring Injury
Trent Alexander-Arnold Knee Injury
Stefan Bajcetic Fitness
Diogo Jota Knee Injury
Thiago Thigh Injury
Joel Matip Ruptured ACL

2️⃣ Man City Update

Man City have been in imperious form since a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Crystal Palace on December 16th, winning 15 of 16 matches in four different competitions and only dropping points at home to Chelsea in the Premier League. They’re also unbeaten in 19 matches in all competitions since a 1-0 defeat at an inspired Aston Villa side on December 6th. They’ve also won nine of their previous 10 EPL games and have taken 28 points from the last 30 available to them. This sustained run of form has been in part inspired by the return of Kevin De Bruyne from injury with the Belgian contributing 11 assists in just 13 appearances this season and creating 1.77 chances per 90.

Last 5 Games
Man City 3
Copenhagen1
06.03.24
Champions League
Man City 3
Man Utd 1
03.03.24
Premier League
Luton Town 2
Man City 6
27.02.24
FA Cup
Bournemouth 0
Man City 1
24.02.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Brentford 0
20.02.24
Premier League

Croatian defender Joško Gvardiol returned from injury during the derby win over Manchester United, although he failed to make an appearance from the bench. This leaves winger Jack Grealish as City’s only confirmed absentee at the time of writing with a groin injury likely to keep him sidelined until the end of March.

PlayerReason
Jack Grealish Groin Injury

👕 Liverpool vs Man City - Potential Lineups

Pos. Liverpool
4-3-3
Man City
3-4-2-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper C. Kelleher Ederson Goalkeeper
Right Back C. Bradley K. Walker Right Centre Back
Centre Back I. Konate R. Dias Centre Back
Centre Back V. van Dijk N. Ake Left Centre Back
Left Back A. Robertson J. Stones Defensive Midfielder
Midfielder D. Szoboszlai Rodri Defensive Midfielder
Midfielder W. Endo P. Foden Right Midfielder
Midfielder A. Mac Allister K. De Bruyne Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward H. Elliott B. Silva Attacking Midfielder
Striker D. Nunez J. Doku Left Midfielder
Wide Forward L. Diaz E. Haaland Striker

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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