Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable13:00 GMT, 10th Mar 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds4.00
Bookmaker10bet Sport
Back the Draw!
The best odds
1.
10​bet Sport
Odds : 4.00
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2.
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Odds : 4.00
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3.
Bet​UK Sports
Odds : 4.00
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aston-villa-v-tottenham-logo aston-villa-v-tottenham-logo

Both of these sides have exceeded their pre-season expectations in 2023/24, with Villa and Spurs in contention to claim a coveted UEFA Champions League spot. While Unai Emery’s men are currently five points clear in fourth place, the Lilywhites have a game in hand and will be keen to avenge the 2-1 defeat they experienced in the reverse fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in November. This is likely to be an open, high octane and keenly contested Premier League clash, although Villa’s formidable home form has made them the pre-game favourites among the best new betting sites in the UK. But which side do I think will win at Villa Park?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Tottenham EPL Prediction

Spurs and Villa produced a thriller in North London in the reverse fixture on November 26th, with their respective xG values of 2.23 and 2.40 indicative of a relentless, end-to-end encounter. The teams exchanged first-half goals after an explosive start, but Villa continued to probe Tottenham’s defence before Ollie Watkins secured a 2-1 win.

Of course, Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs side boast an uncompromising and high-risk approach, with their high line featuring two inverted full-backs who have licence to roam. This enables Spurs to dominate the ball (they average 60.50% possession per 90 minutes in the EPL), while they also like to recover it high up the pitch and have made a league-high 92 tackles in the attacking third.

However, they’ve also made 16 errors leading to an opponent’s attempt on goal this season, with only Brighton (17) more careless in their defensive third. This will suit the pace of Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey in the Villa attack, with the West Midlands side having scored four goals from counterattacks in 2023/24 so far.

Of course, Villa also maintain a high line, with their defensive actions taking place 45.76 metres from their own goal line on average. So, both teams will counter-press aggressively and look to recover the ball high, while leaving space behind for their opponents to exploit. This should contribute to another see-saw game and one where a score draw is a likely result.

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 2 – 2 Tottenham ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Tottenham EPL Match Odds

This is one of those Premier League matches that’s incredibly difficult to call, with both teams consistently excellent and unflinching in terms of their tactical approach. The good news is that there are a number of pre-game markets that you can bet on, from the match winner and BTTS to the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the contest. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and their latest odds!

🏅 Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Match Winner

My Betting Site’s new sportsbooks are pricing Aston Villa at around 2.30 to defeat Spurs, implying a 43.47% probability of a home win. Conversely, Spurs can be backed at an average price of 2.65 to avenge their November loss against the same opposition, suggesting that they have a 37.73% chance of being victorious. Interestingly, the draw is the statistically least likely outcome, with odds of 4.00 implying a 25% probability of both teams taking a point apiece.

Team
Aston Villa to Win2.382.352.242.242.30
Tottenham to Win2.652.662.582.582.66
Draw4.004.003.903.904.00

⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Both Teams To Score

It should come as no surprise that both teams have scored in 77% of Villa’s home matches through 2023/24, with this marginally higher than their overall average of 70%. Both sides have also found the net in 75% of Spurs’ away games through 2023/24, including six of their previous seven matches on the road. Just as Villa have scored in each of their 13 home games this season, Tottenham have yet to draw a single blank away from home in the Premier League.

Yes/No
Yes1.331.401.311.311.36
No3.203.053.083.083.00

🥅 Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villa’s 13 home matches in 2023/24 have witnessed 50 goals at a rate of 3.84 per 90 minutes, while 77% of these games have seen over 2.5 goals scored. Interestingly, 69% have also seen over 3.5 goals scored since the beginning of the campaign. 75% of Spurs' away matches have yielded more than 2.5 goals per game, while these 12 encounters have produced 46 goals in total at a rate of 3.83 per 90.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.351.351.331.331.37
Under 2.5 Goals3.053.202.982.983.00

✔️ Aston Villa vs Tottenham - Betting Tips

Predicting a winner or match outcome here may be challenging, with very little between these two teams. The good news is that there remain plenty of markets that you can target when wagering on the clash between Villa and Tottenham, so here are some football betting tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back Heung-min Son as an Anytime Goalscorer: Heung-min Son scored his first goal for Spurs since returning from the AFC Asia Cup during the 3-1 win against Palace, while he’s likely to lead the line against Villa in the absence of Richarlison. The South Korean forward also has a superb record against the Midlands outfit, scoring six goals and assisting one in just eight career appearances in the Premier League. So, consider getting on Son as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.50 with 10Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back the Draw and Both Teams to Score: If you intend to utilise any free bets on your account, you may want to consider creating value through so-called “combination” betting. For example, you could back both the draw and both teams to score at Villa Park, at the enhanced price of price of 4.50 with LeoVegas Sports. Remember, these team are evenly matched, while no side has drawn more than Spurs’ five away matches in 2023/24. The odds also imply a 73.52% probability of both sides scoring here.
  • Tip 3: Back Aston Villa to Score First: While only Liverpool (22) and Man City (21) have recovered more points than Spurs (19) this season, they’ve faced 15 deficits throughout the campaign. This is more than any other top eight team, while they’ve fallen behind in five of their previous six EPL matches. Conversely, Aston Villa have scored a league-high 24 goals in the opening 30 minutes of Premier League matches through 2023/24, so get on them to score first here at a price of 1.88 with BetUK Sports.

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s home form has been a little sporadic since Christmas, with Emery’s men having won just two of their last five matches in front of their own fans. This run included successive defeats against Newcastle and Man United, while lowly Sheffield United also escaped with a point on December 22nd. This followed a record-equalling run of 15 consecutive victories at Villa Park. The Villains are also sixth in the EPL form table having won 17 points of the previous 30 available to them, while they’ve been victorious in four of their last five matches since January 30th. They thumped Nottingham Forest 4-2 last time out at home.

Last 5 Games
Luton Town 2
Aston Villa 3
02.03.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 4
Nottm Forest 2
24.02.24
Premier League
Fulham 1
Aston Villa 2
17.02.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Man United 2
11.02.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Chelsea 3
07.02.24
FA Cup

Ezri Konsa returned to the fold during the recent win over Forest, but fellow defender Diego Carlos has been ruled out with a hamstring strain. Forward Jhon Duran is also sidelined with a knock and isn’t expected to return until April, with both Emiliano Buendia and Tyrone Mings remain long-term absentees as they recover from significant ACL injuries. Unfortunately, midfielder Boubacar Kamara won’t return this season either, after he also incurred a serious knee injury in defeat against Man United on February 11th.

PlayerReason
Diego Carlos Hamstring Injury
Jhon Duran Knock
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury

2️⃣ Tottenham Update

Spurs recovered another three points from a losing position last time out, with three late goals putting a stubborn Crystal Palace side to the sword at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. However, it’s a strange facet of Spurs’ season that they’re more difficult to defeat on the road than at home, as they’ve only incurred two defeats away throughout the 2023/24 campaign so far. They still need to improve their win-rate on the road, however, with the side having drawn on five occasions and failed to triumph on their travels since a 2-0 victory at the City Ground on December 15th.

Last 5 Games
Tottenham 3
Crystal Palace 1
02.03.24
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Wolves 2
17.02.24
Premier League
Tottenham 2
Brighton 1
10.02.24
Premier League
Everton 2
Tottenham 2
03.02.24
Premier League
Tottenham 3
Brentford 2
31.01.24
Premier League

Spurs could be boosted by the return of both Pedro Porro (muscle injury) and Manor Solomon (knee) for the trip to the Midlands, with Postecoglou’s men having missed the former’s thrust and pace going forward. However, 10-goal Brazilian striker Richarlison has been ruled out with a knee injury, while reserve keeper Fraser Forster won’t return until April with an ankle issue. Ryan Sessegnon is unlikely to feature again in the 2023/24 season, as he continues his recovery from a serious thigh injury.

PlayerReason
Pedro Porro Muscle Injury
Manor Solomon Knee Injury
Richarlison Knee Injury
Fraser Forster Ankle Injury
Ryan Sessegnon Thigh Injury

👕 Aston Villa vs Tottenham - Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
4-4-1-1
Tottenham
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper E. Martinez G. Vicario Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Konza P. Porro Right Back
Centre Back P. Torres C. Romero Centre Back
Centre Back C. Lenglet M. van de Ven Centre Back
Left Back L. Digne D. Udogie Left Back
Right Midfielder L. Bailey Y. Bissouma Midfielder
Central Midfielder J. McGinn Pape Matar Sarr Midfielder
Central Midfielder D. Luiz J. Maddison Midfielder
Left Midfielder J. Ramsey D. Kulusevski Wide Forward
Attacking Midfielder Y. Tielemans Son Heung-min Striker
Striker O. Watkins B. Johnson Wide Forward

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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