Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable17:30 GMT, 9th Mar 24
PredictionArsenal to Win!
Odds1.22
BookmakerBetUK Sports
Arsenal to Win!
The best odds
1.
Bet​UK Sports
Odds : 1.22
Bet €100 and win €122 if Arsenal win.
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2.
Leo​Vegas
Odds : 1.21
Bet €100 and win €121 if Arsenal win.
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3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.18
Bet €100 and win €118 if Arsenal win.
Bonus:
€10
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As Premier League matches go, this may seem one of the easiest to call in Gameweek 28. After all, Arsenal are on a hot streak of seven consecutive EPL wins, during which time they’ve scored 31 goals and conceded just three. This spells bad news for a Brentford side that’s now just six points clear of the relegation zone, after a run of only four wins in 16 league matches dating back to November 4th. However, the Bees are often a handful for the top sides, while their ability to defend with aggression means that the Gunners may not have things all their way at the Emirates this weekend.

🏆 Arsenal vs Brentford EPL Prediction

Brentford pushed Arsenal during the reverse fixture on November 25th, missing several chances and generating an impressive xG of 1.66 before succumbing to a late Kai Havertz goal. This match encompassed the Bees’ profligacy this season, with the side having underperformed their xG value of 43.0 by -5.0 goals (only Sheffield United, Chelsea and Everton has fared worse according to this metric).

The away form of Thomas Frank’s side has also been concerning, with Brentford having won just twice on the road in 12 outings since an impressive 3-0 victory at Fulham on August 19th. They’ve also shipped 21 goals away from home at a rate of 1.75 per game, while they’ve lost 277 tackles in total this season and made 13 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal.

Brentford have also conceded two or more goals in nine of their last 11 top-flight games, and the Bees can ill-afford to be so porous against a red-hot Arsenal side. The Gunners have evolved to become one of the most efficient attacking teams during the season, outperforming their xG of 57.4 by a whopping +10.6 goals in 2023/24 after their 6-0 thrashing of Sheffield United at Bramall Lane.

While I expect Arsenal to continue their winning sequence and create plenty of chances this weekend, however, they’ll be made to work a little harder by a determined and combative Brentford team. I also think the Bees will score in North London, helping them to achieve a relatively respectable scoreline in defeat.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 3 – 1 Brentford ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Brentford EPL Match Odds

Ireland’s new betting sites have published a huge selection of odds ahead of the EPL clash between Arsenal and Brentford. These prices cover a broad range of markets, but which of these are the most popular and capable of offering optimal value to bettors?

🏅 Arsenal vs Brentford: Match Winner

As the heavy betting favourites against the Bees, you can back Arsenal to win at an average price of 1.20 at the Emirates. This implies an 83.33% probability of a home victory. The Bees are priced at around 12.00 to secure a shock win, suggesting that Thomas Frank’s men have just an 8.33% chance of triumphing in North London.

Team
Arsenal to Win1.181.211.181.181.22
Brentford to Win13.7013.0011.3011.2012.00
Draw6.507.106.456.506.33

⚽ Arsenal vs Brentford: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in eight of Arsenal’s 13 home matches this season, including six of their first eight EPL games at the Emirates. They’ve kept four clean sheets in front of their home fans, while West Ham remain the only team to stop them scoring in North London. Both sides have found the net in six of the Bees’ 13 away matches through 2023/24, with Brentford drawing four blanks and keeping three clean sheets (but only one in their previous eight games on the road).

Yes/No
Yes1.881.961.971.961.96
No1.851.821.721.721.81

🥅 Arsenal vs Brentford: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

In total, 67% of Arsenal’s league games have produced over 2.5 goals in 2023/24, with this percentage increasing to 77% across their 13 home matches. The Bees have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 70% of their EPL matches this season, although this percentage is much lower on the road (54%). This has much to do with their tally of just 15 goals scored away from home, at a rate of 1.15 per 90 minutes.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.421.441.411.411.44
Under 2.5 Goals2.952.902.672.672.71

✔️ Arsenal vs Brentford - Betting Tips

The odds imply an incredibly high probability of Arsenal beating Brentford, so there’s little value to be found in backing them outright. However, combination betting may unlock some additional value in match wagering here, while I’ve produced some further insights and football betting tips to help you make more informed selections.

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: While the bookies are somewhat split on the BTTS market, the odds imply a slightly higher probability of both teams not scoring at the Emirates (55.55%). However, Arsenal have conceded more goals at home (12) than on the road (11) this season, while seven of their 11 clean sheets in 2023/24 have been achieved away from the Emirates. The Bees have also scored in four of their last five away games, so get on both teams to score at a price of 1.97 with Betiton Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Leandro Trossard as an Anytime Scorer: I expect Leandro Trossard to start against Brentford, with Mikel Arteta likely to rest Jorginho ahead of the Champions League second-leg clash against Porto next week. The Belgian will also provide an additional goal threat in a match where the Gunners are likely to dominate possession and territory as he has scored seven goals in 23 appearances at a rate of 0.67 per 90 this season. So, get on Trossard as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.63 with 10Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win With Over 2.5 Goals: If you’d like to stake your bankroll rather than use free bets on this match, you may also consider creating strategic combination wagers. For example, Arsenal have an 83.33% chance of winning this encounter according to the pre-game odds, implying a 70.42% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in North London. So, bet on the Gunners to win with over 2.5 goals in a single wager at a price of 1.67 with LeoVegas Sports.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

The Gunners’ record of seven successive wins in 2024 has propelled them to within two points of the Premier League summit, after a run of just one win in five between December 9th and December 31st. They’ve been utterly dominant in this record-breaking sequence too, while their 31 goals have been scored at a rate of 4.42 per game and from an xG of just 19.03. They’ve taken 22 points from the last 30 available to them in the Premier League too, although title rivals Manchester City (28) and Liverpool (25) have both accumulated more during this period. After the 6-0 thumping of Sheffield United, the Gunners became the first EPL side to score five or more goals in three successive away games too.

Last 5 Games
Sheffield United 0
Arsenal 6
04.03.24
Premier League
Arsenal 4
Newcastle United 1
24.02.24
Premier League
FC Porto 1
Arsenal 0
21.02.24
Champions League
Burnley 0
Arsenal 5
17.02.24
Premier League
West Ham 0
Arsenal 6
11.02.24
Premier League

Both Bukayo Saka (illness) and Gabriel Martinelli (foot injury) were withdrawn during the clash at Bramall Lane. Arsenal’s first-choice wingers are expected to be passed fit for the visit of Brentford. Similarly, Takehiro Tomiyasu (knock) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf injury) will be assessed closer to kick-off, with both expected to be in contention to make the matchday squad. However, the match will come too soon for Dutch defender Jurrien Timber as he completes his recovery from an ACL injury. At the same time, David Raya is ineligible to face his parent club. Aaron Ramsdale will start at the Emirates.

PlayerReason
Takehiro Tomiyasu Knock
Oleksandr Zinchenko Calf Injury
Bukayo Saka Illness
Gabriel Martinelli Foot Injury
Jurrien Timber Knee Injury
David Raya Ineligible

2️⃣ Brentford Update

The Bees' run of four wins in 16 Premier League games has seen them plummet to 15th in the table, and just six points ahead of Luton in the final relegation spot. They’ve also conceded 35 goals during this sequence at a rate of 2.16 per 90, while keeping just a single clean sheet (at Molineux against Wolves on February 10th). The good news is that they’ve been a little more potent since the return of Ivan Toney from suspension, with Manchester City the only side to stop them from scoring in their previous 11 outings since December 9th. They also showcased tremendous spirit and fight to secure a 2-2 draw from behind against Chelsea last time out.

Last 5 Games
Brentford 2
Chelsea 2
02.03.24
Premier League
West Ham 4
Brentford 2
26.02.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Brentford 0
20.02.24
Premier League
Brentford 1
Liverpool 4
17.02.24
Premier League
Wolves 0
Brentford 2
10.02.24
Premier League

Ben Mee’s ankle injury is more severe than first thought, with the centre-back having now been ruled out for the remainder of the season. This represents a huge blow, especially with fellow defender Rico Henry and midfielder Josh Dasilva (both knee) also absent until the summer at least. The Bees’ defensive crisis has also been compounded by the absence of Aaron Hickey with a thigh injury, while Ethan Pinnock (foot) is out for a few more weeks. In the forward department, second top scorer Bryan Mbeumo remains sidelined with an ankle injury, while Kevin Schade won’t return from a groin strain until the end of April.

PlayerReason
Aaron Hickey Thigh Injury
Ben Mee Ankle Injury
Bryan Mbeumo Foot Injury
Ethan Pinnock Ankle Injury
Kevin Schade Groin Injury
Rico Henry Knee Injury
Joshua Dasilva Knee Injury

👕 Arsenal vs Brentford - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-3-3
Brentford
3-5-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper A. Ramsdale M. Flekken Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White N. Collins Right Centre Back
Centre Back W. Saliba K. Ajer Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel M. Jørgensen Left Centre Back
Left Back O. Zinchenko M. Roerslev Right Wing Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard F. Onyeka Central Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice C. Nørgaard Central Midfielder
Midfielder L. Trossard M. Jenson Central Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka S. Reguilón Left Wing Back
Striker K. Havertz I. Toney Striker
Wide Forward G. Jesus N. Maupay Striker

Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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