PSG vs Dortmund: Semi-Final Prediction & Betting Tips

psg-vs-dortmund-ucl-prediction psg-vs-dortmund-ucl-prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT - 7th MAY 24
PredictionDraw
Odds@4.60
BookmakerBetUK Sports
The best odds
1.
Bet​UK Sports
Odds : 4.60
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2.
10​bet Sport
Odds : 4.50
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3.
Betiton
Odds : 4.50
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psg-vs-dortmund-ucl-prediction psg-vs-dortmund-ucl-prediction

We are just two matches away from finding out the two teams that will be competing in the 2023/24 Champions League final at Wembley on the 1st of June. On May 7th, Dortmund will travel to Paris to take on PSG with a small advantage in hand. Will this one-goal advantage be enough for the German side to book themselves a spot in the final for the first time since the 2012/13 edition? Or will Paris Saint-Germain overcome this slender deficit and take one step closer to claiming their first ever Champions League title? Read on to find out my views as to what I think will happen.

🏆 Paris Saint-Germain vs Dortmund: Who Will Win?

Borussia Dortmund were thrashed 4-1 by RB Leipzig at the weekend which leaves them sitting in 5th place in the Bundesliga, five points adrift of 4th place. However, luckily for them, due to the performances of German teams in the Champions League and Europa League this season, it is highly likely that Germany will have five UCL qualification spots for next season's competition. They might have been a little bit off-kilter in the Bundesliga this season, but their form in the Champions League has been really impressive.

Paris Saint-Germain drew 3-3 with Le Havre in their last Ligue 1 match, which was a bit of a surprise when you consider that their opponents are in a big relegation battle. However, since Monaco lost 3-2 to Lyon, it meant that PSG claimed yet another Ligue 1 title. They will care little about this trophy though if they go on and get knocked out in the UCL semi-final stages for the second time in the previous four seasons. They put in a decent performance on Wednesday night and will be wondering just how it is that they did not score.

Dortmund head to the French capital on Tuesday evening knowing that a draw will be enough to see them book their spot in the UCL final, and I think they will manage to achieve this feat. They have shown that they can compete with the French giants and I am going to back them to qualify thanks to a 2-2 draw at the Parc des Princes.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSG 2 Borussia Dortmund 2 ⚽

💯 PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Match Odds

Below I am going to give you a nice selection of new UK betting sites and established ones that are offering competitive odds and a nice variety of markets for this PSG vs Borussia Dortmund match. Due to the prestige of the UCL, you will not find it hard to come across a bookie who offers odds for it, but the bookmakers below are the cream of the crop, giving you the best bang for your buck.

If you think any of these five bookmakers are perfect for you but would like to find out a little bit more before you go ahead and open an account with them, then simply visit our bookmaker reviews section as you can find out all you need to know here.

🏅 Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund: Match Winner Odds

The bookmakers were predicting a close first leg between these two teams and this is exactly what it was. PSG controlled the first half, but could not register a shot on target. Dortmund were creating chances and took the lead in the 36th minute thanks to a brilliant finish from Niclas Fullkrug. PSG came out firing in the second half and saw shots from Mbappe and Hakimi strike the post, while Dembele blazed a great chance over the bar with not long to go. A draw probably would have been a fair result, but PSG now have it all to do on their home turf.

While the bookmakers had really close match winner odds for the first leg of this semi-final, the same cannot be said for the upcoming second leg next week. The bookmakers have PSG as the big favourites to win this match and the slight favourites to qualify and book a spot in the final. This is probably due to the fact that PSG won 2-0 in Paris when these two teams met in the Group Stage last September. Below are the match winner odds for those who are interested in this market:

Team
Paris Saint-Germain1.461.461.481.471.50
Draw4.504.504.504.504.60
Borussia Dortmund5.505.506.006.406.50

⚽ Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams To Score Odds

The Champions League sees the best teams in Europe battle it out for the most prestigious trophy in club football, so goals are obviously not a rarity. In the 122 matches that have been played in this season's competition, a total of 369 goals have been scored, which works out at an average of 3.02 goals per game.

PSG and Dortmund have shown that they have no issues scoring goals, so it is no surprise that my five selected bookmakers are predicting both teams to score in this match. If you are the kind of punter who enjoys betting on the BTTS market, below are the odds you need:

BTTS
Yes1.581.581.621.581.65
No2.192.192.152.122.18

🥅 Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals Odds

My five bookies believe that it is highly likely that there will be over 2.5 goals scored in this match. They are equally confident that there will be under 3.5 goals scored. The odds available for the total goals market, coupled with the match winner and BTTS odds, tell us that the bookmakers believe that a 2-1 PSG win is a very likely outcome. This means that the tie would go to extra time, adding to the drama.

Below you can find the most recent over/under 2.5 goals odds:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.51.481.481.501.471.49
Under 2.52.412.412.552.432.45

✔️ Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund - Betting Tips

This section of my PSG vs Borussia Dortmund betting guide will take a look at four of my top tips for this big game. When you are betting on any sport, even if you have a free bet to make use of, it is always wise to check out some betting tips from experienced tipsters as extra knowledge can lead to more success - although success cannot be guaranteed in the sports betting world.

  • Tip 1: Bet on a draw: PSG will be confident about winning this match as they beat Dortmund 2-0 when they played in Paris last September. In fact, from the three matches that they have played in the French capital, the German side are yet to win once - two defeats and a draw. However, I have been impressed with Dortmund in this season's UCL and they have shown that they can compete against the best of the best. I can see both teams cancelling each other out and the match ending in a stalemate. You can find odds of 4.60 at BetUk Sports for this game to end in a draw.
  • Tip 2: Back both teams to score: From the 11 matches that PSG have played in this season's Champions League, both teams have scored in seven of them. In the case of Dortmund, both teams have found the back of the net in five of their 11 games. Paris Saint-Germain, due to their one-goal disadvantage, cannot be overly cautious in this match and will need to attack, which will give Dortmund a chance to add to their goals. Both teams should have scored in the first leg of this semi-final, and it will be a surprise if both fail to score once more. BetUK Sports are offering odds of 1.65 for BTTS.
  • Tip 3: Back Kylian Mbappe to score: Mbappe is the joint top scorer in this year's UCL with eight goals in the 11 matches that he has played. He really should have added to this tally in the first leg, but he saw his shot hit the woodwork and bounce to safety. He is the one player that the Dortmund defenders will be really wary of. Those who want to bet on him to scored can find odds of 1.52 at LeoVegas Sports.
  • Tip 4: Bet on a 2-2 scoreline: There should be several chances for both of these teams to score in this match given the talent that they both have in attack. The bookmakers have PSG as the big favourites to win, but this Dortmund team are resilient and know how to get the job done. I can see them getting a 2-2 draw and going through to the final. Betiton Sport are currently offering odds of 13.10 for this outcome.

N.B. Always remember to gamble responsibly. Stick to a budget and never chase your losses.

1️⃣Paris Saint-Germain Update

PSG have wrapped up another Ligue 1 title, but this will mean very little to them and their fans if they do not go on and win the Champions League title. They have no competition in Ligue 1 and have been eager to win the UCL for many years - the thought of having to wait another year to potentially do so is something those associated with the club do not want to think about. However, they have shown some frailness as they have lost four UCL matches so far, and Dortmund will be ready to pounce on any weakness that they spot.

They are averaging 1.73 goals per UCL match while they are conceding an average of 1.27 goals. Below you can see their last five results in all competitions:

Last 5 Matches
Dortmund1
PSG0
01.05.24
UEFA Champions League
PSG3
Le Havre3
27.04.24
Ligue 1
Lorient1
PSG4
24.04.24
Ligue 1
PSG4
Lyon1
21.04.24
Ligue 1
Barcelona1
PSG4
16.04.24
UEFA Champions League

Luis Enrique has four players who will be missing through injury for PSG's biggest match of the season, and you can see who these players are in the following table:

PlayerReason
Presnel KimpembeAchilles Tendon Injury
Sergio RicoFitness
Lucas HernandezKnee Injury
Layvin KurzawaBack Injury

2️⃣Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund's defeat to RB Leipzig at the weekend has probably consigned them to 5th in the Bundesliga this season, but this will not be too much of a disaster as Germany will be getting an extra spot in next season's Champions League due to the exploits o German teams in Europe this season. Some like to call the Bundesliga a farmers' league, but they have shown their quality and shown that this is not the case.

From their 11 UCL matches this season, they have won six of them, drawn three, and lost just two. This is very impressive when you consider the fact that they even had the hardest group. They are averaging 1.60 goals per match and have conceded just 0.90 goals. Below are their last five results in all competitions at the time of writing:

Last 5 Matches
Borussia Dortmund1
PSG0
01.05.24
UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig4
Borussia Dortmund1
27.04.24
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund1
Bayer Leverkusen1
21.04.24
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund4
Atletico Madrid2
16.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Monchengladbach1
Borussia Dortmund2
13.04.24
Bundesliga

Edin Terzić has the same number of injuries as Enrique, and you can see his four current absentees for this PSG clash in the table below:

PlayerReason
Ramy BensebainiInner Ligament Injury
Abdoulaye KamaraUnknown
Julien DuranvilleKnock
Samuel BambaMuscle Injury

👕 Paris Saint-Germain vs Borussia Dortmund - Potential Lineups

Pos.Paris Saint-Germain
4-3-3
Borussia Dortmund
4-2-3-1
Pos.
GoalkeeperG. DonnarummaG. KobelGoalkeeper
Right BackA. HakimiJ. ReyersonRight Back
Centre BackMarquinhosM. HummelsCentre Back
Centre BackL. BeraldoN. SchlotterbackCentre Back
Left BackN. MendesI. MaatsenLeft Back
Centre MidfieldW. Zaire EmeryM. SabitzerCentre Midfield
Centre MidfieldVitinhaE. CanCentre Midfield
Centre MidfieldF. RuizK. AdeyemiRight Midfield
Right WingO. DembeleJ. BrandtAttacking Midfield
StrikerK. MbappeJ. SanchoLeft Midfield
Left WingB. BarcolaN. FullkrugStriker

✒️ Sheldon Muchmore - iGaming and Sports Betting Enthusiast

This PSG vs Dortmund prediction was written by Sheldon Muchmore.

Sheldon is a sports tipster and casino writer from the UK who has a passion for a variety of sports, especially football, rugby, and cricket. He has been involved in the sports betting industry for many years now, and is always eager to provide successful predictions. He is also a dab hand when it comes to the iGaming sector as he has written many casino and slot game reviews.